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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.