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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.